← Luna Cards Presents: Grand Archive Abyssal Heaven Regionals

Fire SuzakuTier 2

at Luna Cards Presents: Grand Archive Abyssal Heaven Regionals

decks
4 (8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14 5-8-1
overall winrate
39.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4% avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
45.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217 · median 1227 · range 1099–1315 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055 Q1 1200 Q3 1402 1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 13.3% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 55.3% +3.4
Water Fractal 11.1% 0
Water Genbu 8.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.6% -5.4
Wind Allies 6.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.3% -15.5
Wind Shadowstrike 6.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.5% -7.2
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.4% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.4% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 4.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +2.1
Fire Arcane 2.2% 0
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.6% +17.0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.5% -8.8
Fire Exia 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.5% -18.4
Fire Ravishing Mill 2.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.2% 0
Fire Umbra Tristan 2.2% 0
Fire Wind Vanitas 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.6
Slimes 2.2% 0
Water Astra Cleric 2.2% 0
Water Penguin Mill 2.2% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.4% +16.6
Wind Exia 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.9% -14.6
Wind Razorgale 2.2% 0
Wind Seiryuu 2.2% 0
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Rococo, Explosive Maven, Reduce to Ash, Flamewing Fowl. Losers more often ran: Broken Promises, Suzaku's Command, Lavaplume Fatestone.

Played more by winners
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Flamewing Fowl
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Surging Bolt
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Arthur, Young Heir
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Broken Promises
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Suzaku's Command
Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Lavaplume Fatestone
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Shatter the Brittle
Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 69 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 60 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Rococo, Explosive Maven +1.00 3 0 0
Increasing Danger -0.67 0 2 0
Searing Truth +0.67 2 0 1
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.67 2 0 1
Provoking Stand -0.67 0 2 0
Fatestone of Progress -0.67 0 2 0
Coiled Fatestone +0.67 2 0 1
Fatestone of Unrelenting +0.67 2 0 1
Heated Vengeance +0.67 2 0 1
Rousing Rattle Drum -0.67 0 2 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.67 2 0 1
Clash of Fates -0.67 0 2 0
Embertail Squirrel -0.67 0 2 0
Ignite Fate -0.67 0 2 0
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored -0.67 0 2 0
Ameliorating Mantra -0.67 0 2 0
Creative Shock -0.67 0 2 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -0.67 0 2 0
Da Qiao, Cinderbinder -0.67 0 2 0
Advent of the Shenju -0.67 0 2 0
Steady Verse -0.67 0 2 0
Band of Burning Verdict -0.67 0 2 0
Cremation Ritual -0.67 0 2 0
Hasty Messenger -0.67 0 2 0
Fated Keepsake -0.67 0 2 0
Crystallized Destiny -0.67 0 2 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.67 2 0 1
Incandescent Reliquary -0.67 0 2 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion -0.67 0 2 1
Tariff Ring +0.67 2 0 1
Journey's Beginning -0.67 0 2 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.67 2 0 1
Glorious Presence -0.67 0 2 0
Impact Hammer +0.67 2 0 1
Library Witch -0.67 0 2 0
Vermilion Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Demolition +0.67 2 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Blazing Throw +0.67 2 0 0
Reduce to Ash +0.33 2 1 0
Beastbond Paws +0.33 1 0 1
Flamewing Fowl +0.33 2 1 0
Surging Bolt +0.33 2 1 0
Arthur, Young Heir +0.33 2 1 0
Beastbond Boots +0.33 1 0 1
Broken Promises -0.33 1 2 0
Suzaku's Command -0.33 1 2 0
Lavaplume Fatestone -0.33 1 2 0
Shatter the Brittle -0.33 1 2 0
Portentous Tanggu -0.33 0 1 2
Baby Red Slime -0.33 0 1 2
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.33 1 0 0
Planted Explosive +0.33 1 0 0
Smoke Out +0.33 1 0 0
Spark Alight +0.33 1 0 0
Restorative Flame +0.33 1 0 0
Blazing Bowman +0.33 1 0 0
Extraction Incision +0.33 1 0 0
Flamewreath Call +0.33 1 0 0
Fanatical Devotee +0.33 1 0 0
Blitz Charger +0.00 1 1 0
Veteran Blazebearer +0.00 1 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 1
Blitz Mage +0.00 1 1 0
Jianye, Dawn's Keep +0.00 1 1 0
Relic of Dancing Embers +0.00 1 1 0
Expel the Departed +0.00 1 1 0
Focused Flames +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/23695/archetypes/Fire Suzaku